How we work
Method
How the Iran Tension Meter is set, what the event timeline means, and what this is not.
The score (0–100)
- Human-only. An editor sets the number. Feeds never move the needle automatically. An internal recommendation from tagged events since day zero can appear in admin; it never publishes itself.
- Relative score since conflict start. The meter reads tension relative to day zero — Feb 28, 2026, the start of the current U.S.–Iran conflict. June 2025 was a prior episode with a ceasefire; it is not this meter’s zero.
- Ordinal editorial judgment — not a probability of war, not a forecast. The number ranks how tense open reporting looks relative to our own scale since that start. It does not estimate odds of conflict, markets, or policy outcomes. It is not a U.S. government threat level.
- Level label is Amb Affairs’ plain-English band for that score — color on the gauge is for readability only.
- Editor’s note explains the judgment in short prose from open facts only (e.g. announced premiums, public statements, announced talks). It is not a model summary of the events below. Avoid rumor framing (“sources say,” “intel indicates,” “flashpoint”).
- Since last update and the score history since Feb 28, 2026 compare prior published scores only — not a forecast delta.
Score bands
Contiguous Amb Affairs bands. Labels are ours — not a U.S. government threat advisory. Ranges are provisional until locked.
| Band | Range | Meaning (editorial) |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | 0–19 | Open reporting looks routine; little unusual Iran-related tension. |
| Watchful | 20–44 | Worth closer reading; some open signals above routine, without a sustained step-up. |
| Elevated | 45–74 | Amb Affairs band only: tension clearly above routine in open sources; heightened editorial attention. Not a DHS / NTAS / government alert level — we reuse a plain English word for our own mid–high band. |
| Severe | 75–89 | Sustained high tension in open reporting; serious, ongoing indicators. |
| Critical | 90–100 | Extreme open-source tension reading on this scale. |
Event timeline
- The homepage lists editor-published events: date, tension ↑/↓, a ≤10-word line, factor icons, and outlet names that open the original source. Default order is most recent; readers can switch to oldest first. There is no on-site brief.
- Type chips (Kinetic, Maritime/Hormuz, Diplomatic, Nuclear/sanctions) are optional. All means no type filter. Selecting types shows events that match any chosen factor. Selecting every type is the same as All. A filtered-empty list is honest, not an error — the meter still stands.
- The list loads earlier events as you scroll. There is no separate archive CMS.
- Factor icons (A Kinetic, B Maritime / Hormuz, C Diplomatic, D Nuclear / sanctions) name the kind of development — navy / gold / cream marks, not a second tension score.
- ↑ / ↓ is an editor-set tension direction versus the prior reading. Navy ↑ means escalation; muted charcoal ↓ means de-escalation, freeze, or a reopen path. It is not a trading signal.
- An empty timeline means no new events were posted; the meter may be unchanged — not that the world went quiet.
- RSS ingest proposes clustered timeline actions (with sources) and optional meter drafts (≤10-word suggestion + why) for editor approve/dismiss/refine only. Feeds never auto-publish events or the meter.
Hormuz map
- The home hero is a geography primer: real-map underlay, country labels for Iran, UAE, and Oman, and Axis & Allies–style naval tokens. The meter on the right carries the editorial number. There is no USA-vs-Iran scoreboard.
- Illustrative — not live intelligence, not a tracker, not an order of battle. Tokens are frozen at 2 US (Gulf of Oman / approaches) and 2 IR (coastal). Counts do not follow the meter score or the crossings chart.
- Musandam is Oman. The UAE label sits on the mainland, not the exclave tip. A small USA chip marks the U.S. cluster only.
Hormuz crossings
- Always visible under score history — same day-zero axis (Feb 28, 2026). Boat marks sample the series; they do not replace the event timeline.
- Open-source / not live AIS. Sparse published points; the last known band is carried forward until the next sourced update, the same way the score sparkline carries forward.
- The chart uses a numeric Y-scale of 0 / 10 / 20 crossings/day — typical open-source Hormuz tanker volume tops out near 20/day. Bands sit on that axis (normal ≈ 20, thin ≈ 10, single digits, near zero = 0). A sourced daily count is used when a publisher states one. We do not invent live AIS.
- Not a live AIS scrape, not a separate page, and not a chip on every event card.
What this is not
- Not live intelligence, not classified sourcing, not a trading signal.
- The Hormuz map is not a live naval picture, not ship counts, and not current positions.
- Not a U.S. government threat assessment (and our band names are not government alert levels).
- Not an automated “risk score” from news volume or social chatter; human-only score.
- Not a probability of war or a forecast of policy / markets.
- Not Ambassador Times magazine content — sibling site; cross-link only.
DisclaimerThe Iran Tension Meter reflects human-only editorial judgment by Amb Affairs, drawn from open sources and trusted press. It is not live intelligence, not a U.S. government threat assessment, not a probability of war or forecast, not a government or market product, and not investment advice.