How we work
Method
How the Iran Tension Meter is set, what the curated list means, and what this is not.
The score (0–100)
- Human-only. An editor sets the number. Feeds never move the needle automatically.
- Relative score since conflict start. The meter reads tension relative to day zero — Feb 28, 2026, the start of the current U.S.–Iran conflict. June 2025 was a prior episode with a ceasefire; it is not this meter’s zero.
- Ordinal editorial judgment — not a probability of war, not a forecast. The number ranks how tense open reporting looks relative to our own scale since that start. It does not estimate odds of conflict, markets, or policy outcomes. It is not a U.S. government threat level.
- Level label is Amb Affairs’ plain-English band for that score — color on the gauge is for readability only.
- Editor’s note explains the judgment in short prose from open facts only (e.g. announced premiums, public statements, announced talks). It is not a model summary of the headlines below. Avoid rumor framing (“sources say,” “intel indicates,” “flashpoint”).
- Since last update and the score history since Feb 28, 2026 compare prior published scores only — not a forecast delta.
Score bands
Contiguous Amb Affairs bands. Labels are ours — not a U.S. government threat advisory. Ranges are provisional until locked.
| Band | Range | Meaning (editorial) |
|---|---|---|
| Calm | 0–19 | Open reporting looks routine; little unusual Iran-related tension. |
| Watchful | 20–44 | Worth closer reading; some open signals above routine, without a sustained step-up. |
| Elevated | 45–74 | Amb Affairs band only: tension clearly above routine in open sources; heightened editorial attention. Not a DHS / NTAS / government alert level — we reuse a plain English word for our own mid–high band. |
| Severe | 75–89 | Sustained high tension in open reporting; serious, ongoing indicators. |
| Critical | 90–100 | Extreme open-source tension reading on this scale. |
Curated reading
- Stories are chosen by an editor from trusted outlets and open sources / trusted press only.
- The homepage shows what an editor posts — not an automatic news feed. An empty list means no new curated links; the meter may be unchanged — not that the world went quiet.
- Tags such as Worth a look, Worth a skim, and Background are reading priority / meter relevance for today’s list — never a second tension score, never what moves the number, never trading signals.
- Rows open the original source. We do not rewrite the article on this site.
What this is not
- Not live intelligence, not classified sourcing, not a trading signal.
- Not a U.S. government threat assessment (and our band names are not government alert levels).
- Not an automated “risk score” from news volume or social chatter; human-only score.
- Not a probability of war or a forecast of policy / markets.
- Not Ambassador Times magazine content — sibling site; cross-link only.
DisclaimerThe Iran Tension Meter reflects human-only editorial judgment by Amb Affairs, drawn from open sources and trusted press. It is not live intelligence, not a U.S. government threat assessment, not a probability of war or forecast, not a government or market product, and not investment advice.